How tariff disruption will continue reshaping the global economy in 2026

BBC:

President Trump’s favourite word is tariffs. He reminded the world of that in his pre-Christmas “address to the nation”.

With the world still unwrapping the tariffs “gift” from the first year of his second term in office, he said they were bringing jobs, higher wages and economic growth to the US.

That is hotly contested. What is less debatable is that they’ve refashioned the global economy, and will continue to do so into 2026.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that although “the tariff shock is smaller than originally announced”, it is a key reason why it now expects the rate of global economic growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026. A year ago, it predicted a 3.3% expansion this year.

For the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, things are “better than we feared, worse than it needs to be”. Speaking on a podcast recently she explained that growth had fallen from a pre-Covid average of 3.7%.

“This growth is too slow to meet the aspirations of people around the world for better lives,” she said.

Other forecasts for 2026 are even more pessimistic than that of the IMF.