US-China conflict over Taiwan risks a nuclear escalation

(Reuters)

SINGAPORE, May 28 – A conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan would risk a nuclear escalation with both militaries likely to stage sweeping ​operations targeting rival command and communications hubs, a leading defence research centre said on Thursday.

In a strategic assessment ahead of Asia’s biggest annual defence meeting ‌in Singapore this weekend, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said the world was on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race “with the Asia-Pacific at its core”.

“Regional states and those with strategic interests are expanding their nuclear arsenals, while non-nuclear weapons states pursue long-range conventional-strike capabilities: both challenging strategic stability,” the IISS assessment said.

U.S. authorities could not immediately be reached for comment.

China’s defence ministry ​spokesperson Jiang Bin said the IISS report seemed “quite inconsistent” with the actual situation, adding that the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair and it does not ​allow any external interference.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a regular press conference that the U.S. should handle Taiwan “with the ⁠utmost caution”.

Taiwan, the conflict in Iran and uncertainties about U.S. commitments to the region, are expected to surface prominently at the IISS’ Shangri-La Dialogue.

The informal conference runs from May ​29 to 31, drawing an eclectic mix of ministers, generals, intelligence chiefs, diplomats, analysts and weapons makers.

The event follows a summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. ​counterpart Donald Trump in Beijing earlier this month, which led to some concern in Taipei about the U.S. commitment to help the democratically ruled island defend itself.

Beijing has never ruled out the use of force to take control of Taiwan, but has also said it would prefer “peaceful reunification”. Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.

China has ramped up pressure on Taiwan by increasing its military presence around the ​island, keeping Taipei on high alert for further Chinese moves following the summit.