Trump threatens new Iran escalation and risks repeating old mistakes

(Reuters)

WASHINGTON, July 16 – President Donald Trump has ramped up U.S. air strikes on Iran and threatened broader escalation, but there is little sign that a military strategy that has already failed to extract concessions from Tehran will succeed this time.

With ​the collapse of an interim ceasefire deal reached a month ago, Trump finds himself in a bind as he seeks to break Iran’s grip on the vital Strait of Hormuz and force Tehran ‌to accept his demands.

While the two sides have so far avoided a return to full-scale conflict, hopes of finding an off-ramp anytime soon have faded in a crisis that has again driven up global oil prices and sent shockwaves through financial markets.

A wave of tit-for-tat attacks continued into a sixth day on Thursday while Iran signaled it could prod its Houthi allies in Yemen to close another key oil-shipping strait — the Bab al-Mandeb at the mouth of the Red Sea – if Washington hits Iran’s power infrastructure as Trump has threatened.

Signaling increased frustration, Trump has discussed ​with aides, and in some cases spoken publicly, about possibly expanding targets to include energy plants and bridges, sending ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub and bombing a deep-underground nuclear-linked site known as Pickaxe ​Mountain.

Some of these options may be unrealistic due to the high risks and potential for domestic and geopolitical blowback. He has issued similar threats before only to back down.

But ⁠most analysts agree that a major U.S. escalation – short of a dangerous and politically untenable ground invasion to oust Iran’s rulers – would have little chance of being any more effective in forcing Iran to change course than earlier phases of ​the 4-1/2-month-old war in which U.S.-Israeli strikes killed senior leaders and heavily damaged military capabilities.

“There’s no reason to believe that this latest set of attacks or whatever the president has in mind will compel the Iranians to change their thinking,” said ​Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East now at the Atlantic Council think tank. “It’s perhaps more likely to harden their position.”