Will Modi win 400 seats in India’s election? The south holds the answer

Al Jazeera:

New Delhi, India – In the early part of his campaign for India’s upcoming 2024 election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a target for his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance that is ambitious even by the standards of his successful coalition.

“Abki baar 400 paar,” Modi declared, claiming that the National Democratic Alliance, the ruling group of parties, would cross the 400-seat mark in a house of 543 parliamentary seats, with the BJP alone winning 370. Only once in India’s 77 years as an independent nation has any party or alliance won more than 400 seats: the now-in-opposition Congress Party in 1984, in the aftermath of the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

Yet, with India poised to hold the first phase of its 44-day, seven-stage election on April 19, analysts say the success of Modi’s calculations could hinge on one significant part of the country, which has so far remained largely impervious to the BJP’s Hindu majoritarian charms: the country’s south.

Home to about 20 percent of the nation’s population, the five southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Telangana, and the union territories of Puducherry and Lakshadweep, constitute India’s most economically prosperous region. The south contributes more than 30 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

But despite Modi’s pitch that his government has helped boost the Indian economy, the BJP won just 30 of the 131 seats from the region – the vast majority of them from one state, Karnataka – in 2019. It drew a blank in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, and lost the constituencies of Puducherry and Lakshadweep. Some analysts believe a repeat is inevitable.

Nationally, the BJP won 303 out of 543 seats, almost maxing out in most northern states – its traditional strongholds – and leaving the south as the territory it likely needs to gain in for the party to win a larger mandate than in 2019.

“BJP is very unpopular in Andhra Pradesh and other southern states. In fact, anyone that allies with the BJP will do badly in these elections,” said Mohan Guruswamy, a political analyst and the chairman of the Centre for Policy Analysis (CPA), a New Delhi-based think tank.

Parakala Prabhakar, an economist and the husband of India’s finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, said the coming election would reflect a “north-south divide”. Prabhakar has been a critic of the government his wife is a key member of.

The BJP’s struggles in India’s south are not new. With substantially better development indices, including on education and health, than the north, the region has been relatively immune to the religion-driven politics that have traditionally characterised the BJP.

The southern state of Kerala, for instance, has an infant mortality rate of six deaths out of every 1,000 births– almost on par with the United States. The figure for the BJP-ruled state of Madhya Pradesh on the other hand stands at 48, a rate similar to that of war-torn Afghanistan.