What Trump’s conviction means for the election

BBC:

Donald Trump’s criminal conviction presents a remarkable collection of historic firsts.

He’s the first former or serving US president to be found guilty of a crime. He’s the first presumptive major-party nominee to become a convicted felon as well.

While Trump plans his appeal in the hush-money case, and awaits a sentence on 11 July that could in theory include prison time and a hefty fine, it’s not too early to consider the political fallout.

That will be difficult, however, given this has never happened before.

“We often look to history to find some kind of hint of what’s going to happen,” says Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University. “But there is nothing in the record that comes even close to this.”

Trump secured the Republican presidential nomination earlier this year and is scheduled to be crowned at the party’s convention just days after his sentencing.

Polls indicate he is in a statistical dead heat with President Joe Biden and maintains a slight edge in many key swing states that will decide the election. But those surveys also provide evidence that this conviction might change all of that.

In exit polls conducted during the Republican primaries this winter, double-digit numbers of voters said that they would not vote for the former president if he were convicted of a felony.

An April survey by Ipsos and ABC News found that 16% of those backing Trump would reconsider their support in such a situation.